Wholesale inflation soars to 16 months high of 3.4%

The wholesale price inflation surged to 16 months high in June as food and manufactured product prices shot up. Data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry showed inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, rose an annual rate of 3.4% in June from 2.6% in May. Food inflation hit double digits at 10.9% in June from 9.8% in May. Inflation in vegetables rose 38.8% in June, while pulses rose 21.6%. Potato prices shot up 66.4% and onion surged 93.4%. Experts expect that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to delay any interest rate cut for now, given the pressure of food prices on retail inflation. Both wholesale and retail price indices are overwhelmingly being driven by food. CPI inflation crossing the 5% mark in June was largely due to elevated food inflation. While industrial costs are rising, the impact of this is not yet fully reflected in core CPI inflation (core CPI inflation rose marginally to 3.1% in June from 3% in May).

The Central Bank is likely to remain hawkish over persistently elevated food inflation. While it is expected that the window for monetary easing to open in December 2024, it is noted that a risk of rate cuts being pushed to 2025, if growth remains on a strong footing or if the inflation surge is stronger than expected by the Bank. Retail inflation rose to a four-month high in June, led by a spurt in prices of food and beverages, delaying any prospects of interest rate cuts for now. Data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, rose an annual rate of 5.1% in June, faster than 4.8% in May and higher than 4.9% in June 2023. Rural inflation was higher at 5.7%, while urban was at 4.4%. The jump in the WPI inflation to 3.4% in June 2024 was broad-based and along expected lines, displaying the third consecutive month of a sizeable sequential step up (+0.3% in March 2024, +1.2% in April 2024 and +2.6% in May 2024).